Skill needs forecasting

The National Observatory applies two methodological approaches for forecasting of skill needs in the Czech Republic. The quantitative one is represented by the mathematical forecasting model ROA-CERGE that is being applied and developed in cooperation with the NTF – National Observatory, RILSA and CERGE-EI.

The model measures, at the national level, the friction on the labour market between demand for, and supply of, skilled labour for defined education groups in the next five years. The model forecasts the demand and supply side of the labour market separately for 27 educational and 30 occupational clusters, matches them and indicates future shortages and surpluses at the labour market.

The main outcomes of the model are: expansion demand, replacement demand, substitution demand, Shift-share analysis, labour market indicators (IFLM – Indicator of Future Labour Market Prospects, IFRP – Indicator of Future Recruitment Prospects) and Coefficient of Attractiveness of Fields of Study. All the projections are at the moment for national level only but extensions to regional level are planned in the near future.

Sectoral studies are another method of forecasting developed by the National Observatory. These studies are qualitative and will thus allow drawing conclusions and making adjustments in education programmes to adapt them to future demands of the labour market. They make it possible to capture the development of new occupations and principal changes in the existing ones. This type of studies is at the initial stage. There were only three studies elaborated. These studies are carried out by the National Observatory in cooperation with experts in the relevant field.

The results of sectoral studies are interconnected with the outputs of the ROA-Cerge quantitative model in order to get a quantitative/qu­alitative view of the development of occupations and qualification requirements. There are plans to conduct at least two sectoral studies per year and gradually to feed them in the information databank. The resulting information is presented to the general public in a coherent and comprehensible manner at www.czechfutureskills.eu.

In line with the results of quantitative and qualitative prospective studies, information products are further elaborated to suit the requirements of the main users (educators, career counsellors, sector councils).

Pilot information products are currently being developed within the project Koncept. In 2010 so-called Qualification Cards for Occupations (Kvalifikační karty profesí) and Educational Field Analyses (Analýzy vzdělávacích oborů) were proposed. They are designed, above all, to serve the needs of experts involved in the development of the National Register of Vocational Qualifications. Each Card contains a set of analytical data that point to the position of the occupation at the labour market and its existing and future relevance for the economy. The cards are designed to facilitate the choice and preparation of partial qualifications as part of the system for recognition of results of continuing education and training. Educational Field Analyses are designed as background material for sector councils to prepare so-called “sector agreements”.

Sector agreements define among others the roles and obligations that stakeholders at the labour market in the relevant sector (including education providers) should play in relation to the education and training of human resources. Other tools developed by the National Observatory within Koncept project include Regional Analyses of Adult Education or Sector Profiles.

Projects

REPLAY-VET

Active project

Strengthening Key Competencies of Low-Skilled People in VET to Cover Future Replacement Positions (REPLAY-VET)

REPLAY-VET is an ERASMUS+ strategic partnership which aims to provide the disadvantaged and low- skilled people with targeted opportunities to acquire the VET skills to cover the job vacancies in Europe resulting from replacement demand. 

SkillsNet

Active project

The purpose of the SkillsNet network is to bring together qualified researchers and other experts in the areas of employment, labour market and education. Their task is to address issues focusing on the rapidly changing requirements for the knowledge and skills of the workforce and on the methods of their identification so that education systems can respond to them in a timely manner through the training of both pupils and adults. The network was set up by the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop) in 2003.

SIMOVET - Smart information models to adequately adapt vocational training to the labour market needs

Completed project
 
The aim of the project is to collect quantitative and qualitative information on the skills needs of selected sectors, process them into a suitable form and use them properly in the educational system and in the counselling.

VET-EDS: Effective Forecasting as a mechanism for aligning VET and Economic Development Strategies

Completed project
 
The project focuses on mapping examples of good practice in order to make adapt educational system to the labour market needs in selected countries (Czech Republic, Italy, Netherlands, Germany, Scotland, Sweden, Spain, and UK). The project also includes the development and use of information about the future development of skill needs.

Elaboration of Employment and sector‘s projections to 2033

Completed project
Project duration: May 29, 2014 – January 31, 2015

Activities under this contract belong to a large project titled „ Common approach of social partners to the preparation of economic sectors for changes in pension system – the 1st stage“, which was implemented by the Czech Confederation of Employer’s and Enterpreneur’s U­nions.

Labour force monitoring and forecasting – Lithuania

Completed project
Project duration: October 30, 2013 – September 23, 2014
The main objective of the project is implementation of the quantitative skill needs forecasting model in Lithuania and production of first projection results. The development of a new modelling tool for Lithuania is based on the model used in the Czech Republic. 

Foresights and forward looking scenarios approaches for anticipation of skill needs (ILO)

Completed project
Project duration: January 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

NOET-NTF processes this contract for the ILO (International Labour Office). This project aims to map and compare approaches to foresighting and scenarios of the future development of skills needs in various countries, including the evaluation methods used and the roles that these approaches occupy in the broader context of the anticipation of skill needs the countries concerned.

THE EU SKILLS PANORAMA – Achieving Regional and Local Impact (ARLI)

Completed project
Project duration: April 1, 2013 – March 31, 2014

The ARLI project seeked to utilise a system of mutual learning to gather good practices from regional and sub-regional experts across the partner countries and to use this to support both the EU Skills Panorama – online labour market information tool developed for the European Commission.

For the ARLI project, NVF work was based on its cooperation with several Czech regions where NVF develops regional information systems on labour market as a support tool for the regional government, PES and other users.

KONCEPT (Concept of Continuing Vocational Education and Training): System forAdjustment of Training Offer to Labour Market Needs

Completed project
Project duration: April 26, 2010 – March 31, 2012

Within the project Koncept, The National Observatory was responsible for elaboration of information products on the labour market skill needs. These products were aimed at several target groups including Sector Skills Councils, creators of The National Qualifications Framework, CVET providers as well as CVET guidance and counselling services providers.

Developing and piloting an employer survey on skill needs in Europe

Completed project
Project duration: March 31, 2010 - 1Q 2012

The aim project was the development, preparation and piloting employers survey across the EU, focusing on the future need for skilled labour.

The National Training Fund was involved in the project as a member of the international multi-disciplinary team of experts for research educational and skill needs. NTF was participated in the development and formulation of the overall concept a questionnaire survey.

Transferable skills across economic sectors – Role and importance foremployment at European level

Completed project
Project duration: January 1, 2010 - February 28, 2011

The overall aim of the project was to identify transferable skills and their role and importance with regard to the employability, adaptability and occupational mobility of people on the labour market. The project leader was RPIC-VIP.

Monitoring of Short-time Trends in Labour Market Demand

Completed project
Project duration:  February 1, 2010 - December 31, 2010

The aim of this research project was to find comprehensive information about the extent and changes in job evaluation and short-time trends of their development.

Labour Market Institute (LMI): Activity 5 – System for Analyses and Forecasts of Skill Needs

Completed project
Project duration: March 31, 2007 - July 31, 2008

The objective of the LMI project, which run in five pilot regions was to streamline public employment services and improve their quality and accessibility for various groups of clients. Partners in the project included the National Training Fund, the Economic Chamber of the Czech Republic and the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs.

The National Observatory implemented Activity 5 which was focused on proposing a system for regular analyses and forecasts of skill needs in the labour market, and for their use by employment services in their operations. The work included evaluation of foreing approaches to analyses and forecasts, and a proposal for methods to be employed in the CR.

FORJOBS – Forecasting Jobs and Skills

Completed project
Project duration: 2008 – 2009

The aim of the FORJOBS project was to develop innovative instruments and methodologies intended to allow partner institutions to assess professional and training needs in their areas of interest. The project was based on the provision of an econometric model for the forecasting of employment stocks and flows to three out of four partners (NEA, SEPECAM and National Training Fund).

Knowledge Society – Requirements on Human Resources Skills and ContinuingTraining

Completed project
Project duration: 2004 – 2009

This project was implemented as part of the programme „Modern Society and Its Changes“ run by the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. Main implementer was the National Observatory that worked on the project with two partners – the Research Institute for Labour and Social Affairs and the Institute of Sociology of the Academy of Sciences of the CR. 

Future Skill Needs in Czech Energy Industry

Completed project
Project duration: 2008

The study analyses future skill needs in production and distribution of electricity, gas and heating in the Czech Republic in 2007–2016 period. It also addresses expected situation on labour markets in related sectors (particularly mining and manufacturing of fuels, mechanical engineering or services related to energy consultancy, projecting and design).

Mid-term skills supply and demand forecast

Completed project
 
National Training Fund is part of the project team focused on medium-term forecasts. The leader of team is the Warwick Institute for Employment Research (IER). The role of the National Training Fund consists in processing partial analysis of professional skills and characteristics.